《Thoughts and Considerations》The market has already entered the latter part of September, so activities related to the rollover and settlement of the current-month futures will gradually dominate the overall situation. As of the time of writing, the market pattern for this month remains temporarily high at first and then low. The Hang Seng Index has temporarily fallen from the high of 25,791 points on the 4th to the low of 24,357 points on the 17th, and the monthly range has slightly widened to 1,434 points. Since a 1,434-point range is merely average, it seems still insufficient to meet the month's requirements. However, the Hang Seng Index has preliminarily reclaimed the 10-day line (around 24,844 points) on Monday this week (21st). Thus, from a technical perspective alone, the market indeed shows initial signs of stabilization. Strictly speaking, as long as the Hang Seng Index can consistently hold above the 10-day line (around 24,844 points), it indicates that the market has temporarily escaped its persistent downtrend. However, even if the market sees a rebound, given the relatively thin trading volume, the momentum appears mismatched. Therefore, the market can only experience a temporary technical pullback.
*Moving averages remain in inverted order, trading volume continues to be thin, and external factors remain unclear*
Although the market has slightly rebounded recently, the performance of the moving averages remains weak. As of now, the arrangement of all sets of moving averages remains in inverted order, from top to bottom: the 250-day line (around 25,722 points), the 50-day line (around 25,339 points), the 20-day line (around 25,133 points), the 100-day line (around 25,077 points), and the 10-day line (around 24,844 points). Judging solely from the arrangement, the overall market indeed remains volatile, uncertain, and weak. However, since the Hang Seng Index has slightly reclaimed the 10-day line (around 24,844 points), the correction that began from the high of 26,187 points on August 4th appears to have preliminarily bottomed at the low of 24,357 points on September 17th, meaning the Hang Seng Index has corrected 1,830 points in total. Compared to the previous rebound of 3,669 points (from the low of 22,518 points on June 22nd to the high of 26,187 points on August 4th), the Hang Seng Index has retraced 49.8% of its gains. Technically, this may already satisfy the requirements for a normal rebound, and the current recovery from the low is temporarily just a technical rebound following a sharp decline.
There are not many trading days left this month. Next Monday (28th) will be the peak day for the current-month futures rollover, next Tuesday (29th) will be the settlement day for the current-month futures, and next Wednesday (30th) will be the last trading day of the month, also the settlement day for over-the-counter derivatives for the current month. Therefore, in the coming trading days, long-position major players may continue to place stabilizing buy orders. Naturally, the current hope is for the current-month futures to rollover and settle at relatively higher levels, thus benefiting October's positioning. However, several points need attention. First, trading volume since August has remained consistently thin, and with mismatched momentum, it is difficult to have high expectations for significant market gains. Additionally, external factors remain persistently unclear. First, the Middle East situation remains tense, and international oil prices remain high. The U.S. Federal Reserve may further raise interest rates in the fourth quarter, potentially pushing the federal funds rate up to 4-4.05 percent. As the interest rate gap between the U.S. dollar and the Japanese yen will further widen, concerns about carry trades have emerged, which is also a market worry. Stephen Kwok, Vice Chairman of the Hong Kong Association of Stock Analysts
*Articles published in Economic Times, whether signed or unsigned, represent the personal opinions of the authors and do not reflect the stance of Economic Times. Economic Times serves merely as a platform providing free speech.
*Moving averages remain in inverted order, trading volume continues to be thin, and external factors remain unclear*
Although the market has slightly rebounded recently, the performance of the moving averages remains weak. As of now, the arrangement of all sets of moving averages remains in inverted order, from top to bottom: the 250-day line (around 25,722 points), the 50-day line (around 25,339 points), the 20-day line (around 25,133 points), the 100-day line (around 25,077 points), and the 10-day line (around 24,844 points). Judging solely from the arrangement, the overall market indeed remains volatile, uncertain, and weak. However, since the Hang Seng Index has slightly reclaimed the 10-day line (around 24,844 points), the correction that began from the high of 26,187 points on August 4th appears to have preliminarily bottomed at the low of 24,357 points on September 17th, meaning the Hang Seng Index has corrected 1,830 points in total. Compared to the previous rebound of 3,669 points (from the low of 22,518 points on June 22nd to the high of 26,187 points on August 4th), the Hang Seng Index has retraced 49.8% of its gains. Technically, this may already satisfy the requirements for a normal rebound, and the current recovery from the low is temporarily just a technical rebound following a sharp decline.
There are not many trading days left this month. Next Monday (28th) will be the peak day for the current-month futures rollover, next Tuesday (29th) will be the settlement day for the current-month futures, and next Wednesday (30th) will be the last trading day of the month, also the settlement day for over-the-counter derivatives for the current month. Therefore, in the coming trading days, long-position major players may continue to place stabilizing buy orders. Naturally, the current hope is for the current-month futures to rollover and settle at relatively higher levels, thus benefiting October's positioning. However, several points need attention. First, trading volume since August has remained consistently thin, and with mismatched momentum, it is difficult to have high expectations for significant market gains. Additionally, external factors remain persistently unclear. First, the Middle East situation remains tense, and international oil prices remain high. The U.S. Federal Reserve may further raise interest rates in the fourth quarter, potentially pushing the federal funds rate up to 4-4.05 percent. As the interest rate gap between the U.S. dollar and the Japanese yen will further widen, concerns about carry trades have emerged, which is also a market worry. Stephen Kwok, Vice Chairman of the Hong Kong Association of Stock Analysts
*Articles published in Economic Times, whether signed or unsigned, represent the personal opinions of the authors and do not reflect the stance of Economic Times. Economic Times serves merely as a platform providing free speech.
